In 2020, the trend of soda ash will be twists and turns, the price will rise and fall obviously, and it will go downhill in the fourth quarter. For this year, affected by the epidemic situation, the output of soda ash in the downstream decreased year on year. Some varieties were better than last year, but the overall performance of downstream was weak, and the consumption of soda ash was affected.
The overall demand for float glass is relatively stable this year, which is one of the lower reaches with better performance in soda ash demand. According to Longzhong information statistics, as of November 26, there were 304 glass production lines (58.755 million tons / year) after eliminating zombie production lines, of which 251 were in production (49.4625 million tons / year), 53 were cold repair and shutdown. The operating rate of float industry enterprises was 82.57%, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.19%. The total inventory of sample enterprises in China was 18.5822 million heavy containers, down 12.26% month on month, up 2.52% year-on-year (after excluding the incremental sample inventory, the year-on-year decrease was 23.31%), among which, the inventory of enterprises in Shahe area increased slightly by 1.71% to 237600 heavy containers, and the inventory of enterprises in Central China and Hubei Province decreased by 12.21% month on month. At present, the production capacity of soda ash is increased by 30t / 30t and the total capacity of soda ash is increased by 30t / 30t, which affects the total production capacity of 7890d. This year, the daily capacity and operating rate of glass plant have increased steadily and tend to be stable. The inventory of enterprises is low, the profit is high, and the start-up of enterprises is relatively stable. From the change of production line, glass belongs to the trend of net increase, and the demand of soda ash increases.
For daily use glass, the overall demand performance has declined this year, and the enterprises are affected by the epidemic situation and their output is affected. According to statistics, the output of glass packaging containers for daily use will be 12.5288 million tons from January to September in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 4.17%. From January to September 2020, the output of daily glass products will be 5.104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.90%. Among them, the impact of glass products is greater, the main reason is that the export volume of glass products is large. In the first half of the year, affected by the epidemic situation, exports are restricted, affecting market transactions. Due to the decline of daily glass production this year, the demand for soda ash shows a decreasing trend.
Detergent, the overall output performance of the washing industry this year is relatively high, significantly increased year-on-year. According to statistics, in September 2020, China's synthetic detergent output was 1.12 million tons, an increase of 13% year-on-year; from January to September 2020, China's production of synthetic detergent was 8.007 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. In August 2020, China's synthetic detergent production was 297000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 7.8%; from January to August 2020, China's synthetic detergent production was 2.349 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%. Detergent is related to epidemic prevention, the demand is increased, the output is released, and the demand for soda ash is increased. From the short-term market point of view, the epidemic prevention continues, and the production of washing industry is expected to continue to increase.
Printing and dyeing, as the downstream of soda ash, has a general trend this year, with low operating rate and few orders in the first half of this year. Double "11" short-term orders high, flash in the pan, follow-up orders scattered, operating rate decreased. As of November 26, the average start-up rate of dyeing and printing enterprises in Shaoxing was 76.48%, with a month on month decrease of 2.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.52%. Among them, most of the dyeing plants had a start-up rate of around 70-80%, and some of them were lower around 60%. The start-up of dyeing plants continued to decline, and the lack of orders became the most important reason for the decline. The situation of factory empty warehouse increased and the small cylinder workshop showed a little busy situation, most of which were proofing orders, but the actual orders decreased. However, according to the feedback of industry insiders in the follow-up new documents, no orders were received in the spring of next year. In addition, due to the lack of orders from upstream traders and cloth merchants, the upstream weaving factories continued to decline It is bound to affect the start-up behind the dyeing plant. It is expected that the start-up of the dyeing plant will continue to decline in the later stage. The average operating rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in Shengze area was 67.86%, and the operating ring was flat, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.14%. Among them, most of the dyeing plants start-up rate is around 60-70%, some of them are lower and start-up rate is around 50%. This week, most dyeing factories in Shengze area started operation temporarily and stably. At present, orders are still mainly made up of winter clothes. Spring orders and proofing have not increased compared with last week, and the actual orders are still sporadic. In addition, affected by poor demand, the stock of grey fabrics in upstream weaving factories is high, and the start-up or continuous decline will inevitably affect the start-up of dyeing plants.
Inorganic salt industry, including sodium silicate and sodium bicarbonate, has many varieties, but small production capacity. As the consumption of inorganic salt products of soda ash is mainly traditional products, there is no new field, so the consumption of inorganic salt products to soda ash is relatively stable in recent years. It is expected that the consumption of inorganic salt will not change much in the next few years. For alumina, monosodium glutamate and other fields, the demand for soda ash tends to be saturated, and the demand change is not obvious. In a word, the downstream demand of soda ash tends to be stable basically. Even though the capacity of some industries has been expanded, the overall consumption is generally stable. In 2020, affected by the epidemic situation, the demand of some industries will decline.
