1、 Price trend
On November 30, the domestic Carbon Black price was 7150 yuan / ton, and the price fluctuation range was 100-300 yuan / ton. The carbon black price rose this month.
2、 Market analysis
Upstream and downstream
Since the third quarter, domestic carbon black prices have continued to rise due to the high strength of the tire industry chain and the de capacity and low opening rate of the coking carbon black industry chain. The northern region has entered the heating season, which will have an impact on the operating rate of coal tar carbon black industry. From the autumn and winter of 2020-2021, the air pollution control policy requires strict requirements. Some carbon black enterprises in the main carbon black production areas start to limit production, some large enterprises start to limit production by more than 20%, and severely regional carbon black enterprises start to limit production by 50%. In the future, the operating rate of carbon black enterprises is expected to decline until October The inventory of bottom carbon black industry was 120000 tons, down 62% compared with the same period last year and 22% month on month. The inventory level is still expected to continue to decline in the future. The operating rate of downstream all steel tire enterprises in Shandong is about 73%, which is about 5% higher than that of the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic semi steel tire enterprises is about 70%, which is 3% higher than that of the same period last year. In October, Shanxi will further eliminate about 7% of the coking capacity in the province, and will further push up the price of coal tar products in the medium term. At present, the inventory of carbon black industry is lower than the normal level, and the gap between supply and demand in the market is still obvious. Under the background of urgent demand for replenishment of carbon black, the price of carbon black may maintain an upward trend.
Customs data showed that China's tire export volume in September maintained a double growth on the same month, and the foreign trade export situation was better. In addition, the global tire industry continued to warm up after the third quarter, so the production capacity demand for domestic tire enterprises is still very high.
3、 Future forecast
2020 is about to enter the last month, and the price may be stronger; in 2021, downstream demand will enter the traditional off-season, coupled with the coming Spring Festival holiday, analysts believe that the price of carbon black will rise steadily.
