Since the third quarter, the market trend of Carbon Black has mainly declined. It fell to September, and there was a rebound trend due to the rise in the price of raw materials. The third quarter is the off-season of traditional demand. This year, due to the severe overseas epidemic situation, the shortage of automobile chips, the sharp rise of sea freight and other adverse factors, the production, sales and export volume of the downstream tire market decreased, the demand for carbon black was insufficient, and the shock went down. As of September 14, the mainstream transaction range of wet carbon black N330 in North China was about 7300-7500 yuan / ton, down 2.6% from the end of June; Up 50% over the same period last year. Compared with the same period last year, raw coal tar increased by 92%; Anthracene oil rose 63%. It can be seen from the data that although the downstream demand for carbon black is insufficient and the market is declining, the carbon black has little decline under cost pressure due to the high price of raw materials. Affected by the rising cost pressure, at present, the offer of carbon black enterprises is rising, the follow-up of actual orders is insufficient, and the industry has changed from loss to low profitability.
In terms of raw materials, some auction prices have continued to rise in the recent high-temperature coal tar market, boosting the mentality of manufacturers. At present, deep-processing enterprises still have the intention to replenish the stock just before the festival, while coke enterprises are reluctant to sell in the face of the current situation of higher coal prices and increased production restrictions. At the same time, with the advent of the double festival, the supply of coal tar is more tense. Therefore, Zhongyu information believes that the market transaction focus will continue to move up this week. Due to the serious impact of product upside down, anthracene oil prices are low, mainly pushing prices. Crude oil fluctuated at a high level and the price of ethylene tar continued to rise. As of mid September, the price of ethylene tar increased by 200 yuan / ton compared with the previous month. Carbon black enterprises had high production costs, low industry profits and even losses, and had a strong upward mentality.
In terms of demand, the output of downstream tire market decreased. In July, China's tire industry showed a comprehensive downward trend. According to the rubber tire production data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the domestic rubber tire outer tire production in July 2021 was 72.71 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, which was the first decline in 2021. According to the data of China Automobile Association, from January to July, production enterprises sold 14.756 million new cars, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%. In July, the production and sales of automobiles were 1.863 million and 1.864 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 4.1% and 7.5%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.5% and 11.9%. Sales continued to decline in May, showing negative growth in the third month.
In terms of import and export, the total import of carbon black from January to July 2021 was 59131.8 tons, an increase of 22.5% over the same period last year. The main import sources are South Korea, Japan and the United States. From January to July 2021, the total export volume of carbon black was 481000 tons, an increase of 37.01% over the same period last year. The main export areas are Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc. However, carbon black exports fell 8.72% month on month in July.
To sum up, the upward trend of carbon black price is inevitable due to the upward pressure of raw material cost. However, due to the decline in the production and sales of downstream tires and automobile industries, the shortage of chips and shipping problems are difficult to solve in the short term; The epidemic situation at home and abroad is still severe, affecting the terminal demand. It is expected that the "golden nine and silver ten" in the traditional demand peak season this year may be less than that in previous years. However, once the above problems are alleviated or retaliatory consumption rebound is ushered in, the carbon black market in the fourth quarter is still worth looking forward to.
