Introduction: The domestic PVC Paste Resin market continues to operate at a high level. Under high price pressure, the market is mainly wait-and-see, and the transaction situation has slowed down. At present, the market for PVC paste Resin continues to be bullish and bearish, with prices temporarily being dominated by consolidation.
1、 Positive factors:
1. Macro continue to improve
This month's LPR showed an asymmetric decline, with a 10-year LPR decrease of 10 basis points, while five-year and above LPR remained unchanged, lower than previous market expectations. Experts believe that the one-year LPR will be further lowered, and the interest rates of various short-term loans closely related to LPR, such as corporate short-term financing and consumer loans, will also face a new wave of adjustments. At the same time, LPRs with a maturity of more than 5 years remain stagnant, reflecting a comprehensive consideration of the relationship between incremental, stock, and other financial product prices when adjusting and optimizing real estate credit policies. While reducing the cost and interest burden of residents' home purchases, it also helps commercial banks achieve a balance between actively and flexibly lowering mortgage rates, benefiting the real economy, stabilizing their balance sheets, and doing a good job in fine and solid risk management. The continuous improvement of policy has positive support for the entire bulk environment, and to some extent, it has driven the atmosphere rhythm of PVC paste resin to be more volatile.
2. Rising raw material calcium carbide, strengthening cost support
The shortage of calcium carbide has become inevitable, and the market demand for calcium carbide has only increased without decreasing. This week, calcium carbide has risen twice in a row, and the downstream trend has slightly slowed down. However, it is difficult to match the market trend, and there are expectations of an increase in the market's calcium carbide volume. However, unloading statistics are still at historical lows, and there is not much room for calcium carbide to decline in the short term. It is necessary to closely monitor the arrival situation.
3. There is not much pressure on social inventory and corporate inventory
Shenyang Chemical, Shandong Langhui, and Tangshan Sanyou have a good pre-sale situation, with 2000 to 3000 tons of outstanding orders still outstanding. Jining Bank of China has resumed production, but the initial inventory continues to be digested.
2、 Negative factors:
1. Starting to improve construction, domestic PVC paste resin enterprises have reduced maintenance
There are not many PVC production enterprises with maintenance plans in the later stage, and combined with current profits, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will be 57.36% this week. If there is no sudden parking, production will begin to recover to its previous level.
2. Weakened export support, lower prices than in the early stage
This week, the production of the Oli chlor alkali plant in the United States resumed, and it is expected that the demand for domestic PVC will slow down; At present, the export price of the seed lotion method is lower than that of the domestic market, and it is difficult to deal with high price exports. The suspension method has a preference for export orders, and the price has certain advantages.
The overall downstream demand has not yet fully recovered. The glove market is operating at 20-30%, while the Shandong region is operating at a relatively high level. The future orders in the South China leather market have not changed much, and there are relatively few new orders. Overall, the PVC paste resin market continues to play a bullish and bearish game, and it is expected that the market will consolidate at a high level in the near future.
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