Introduction: In the fourth quarter of 2023, the price trend showed a V-shaped pattern, first falling and then rising. The road to price increases in the fourth quarter is arduous, and it is unknown whether the news of price increases has been implemented.
From the trend chart, it can be seen that the market began to decline in October under high price pressure, returning to rationality. The main reason is still the impact of sales pressure. Terminal demand has not substantially improved, and the market began to decline under pressure. In late November, Shenyang Chemical temporarily stopped for maintenance, and market prices rebounded slightly. However, the road to price increase was quite difficult, with multiple signals of price increase being released, but it did not actually land. Although it was difficult, prices still rebounded, providing a good starting price for the start of 2024.
The price trend of raw material calcium carbide in the fourth quarter is astonishingly similar to that of PVC Paste Resin, with a first decline followed by stability and then a slight increase. Starting from November, the price of raw material calcium carbide has remained stable for a long time, which has limited support for the cost of PVC paste Resin. It is difficult for PVC paste resin prices to rise under the influence of calcium carbide. As the fourth quarter approaches its end, calcium carbide prices have begun to rebound slightly. On the one hand, the power restrictions of the "West East Power Transmission" continue to affect the supply in Inner Mongolia. On the other hand, the increasing pressure of road transportation due to rain and snow weather has affected downstream delivery, causing PVC enterprises to reduce their production burden. The third aspect is the recovery of road transportation, with some improvement in downstream arrivals. However, due to the sustained temperature below zero, road icing, and slow vehicle operation, it will still take a long time for downstream load recovery to accumulate until unloading, which is a positive factor for the duration.
In the fourth quarter, there were relatively few maintenance companies, and the overall operating situation was higher than last year. Although the price increase momentum was limited in December, the pre-sale situation of manufacturers was still relatively optimistic. Shandong Langhui and Xinjiang Tianye (600075) have been in a tight supply situation, while Shenyang Chemical and Jining Bank of China have not had much inventory pressure. The overall glove market orders started better in the second half of the year than in the first half, and the sales volume of glove materials in the market is still acceptable. The price of raw material VCM is expected to remain stable before the end of the month, and with the increase in carbide prices, the cost support for PVC paste resin is strong. It is expected that the market price will remain stable with minor fluctuations in January 2024.
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