Introduction
Since the price of domestic PVC Paste Resin fell deeply last week, market participants generally believe that the price has basically bottomed out and the market entry atmosphere has improved. With the sudden positive increase this week, the paste Resin market atmosphere shows signs of improvement.
In July, the domestic PVC paste resin market entered the situation of enterprise commencement and price decline. Affected by the high cost of raw calcium carbide and inventory pressure, some paste resin enterprises began to reduce the load production in early July. The average operating level of domestic PVC paste resin enterprises was even less than 50%, but the inventory pressure was still difficult to alleviate. At the beginning of last week, the offer of some paste resin enterprises was lowered again, and the mainstream market price was as low as 8500-9200 yuan / ton. Last week, the price of raw calcium carbide rose one after another (the supply gap of calcium carbide caused by power restriction increased and the supply of calcium carbide in various places was obviously tight, which was the main reason to promote the continuous rise of prices), resulting in the continued amplification of the cost pressure of paste resin enterprises. Some market people believe that the price has basically bottomed out and the enthusiasm to enter the market has improved significantly. After the deep drop in the price of paste resin on July 123, some buyers began to copy the bottom into the market, and the purchase volume was also significantly enlarged. The inventory pressure of some paste resin enterprises decreased rapidly. At the end of last week, some enterprises began to close the market without quotation or reluctant to sell resources, and the market stop signal was obvious. As of July 19, the mainstream price in the domestic large market was 8600-9200 yuan / ton, and sporadic high and low prices were also heard. Today, as the operating load of Junzheng in Inner Mongolia suddenly dropped to 50%, which brought a wave of small positive boost to the market, some enterprises tried to increase the quotation, and the mainstream price in the large market was increased to 8700-9500 yuan / ton.
Whether the price of paste resin can hit the bottom and rebound still needs to be analyzed from the following aspects:
Cost side: under the condition that the price of raw calcium carbide is high and the ex factory price of paste resin remains low, the paste resin enterprises of externally mined calcium carbide have made significant losses, with an average loss of nearly 1300 yuan / ton as of July 15. Today, some paste resin enterprises mining calcium carbide in the East lost nearly 2000 yuan / ton. Although the power restriction in Inner Mongolia has eased today, and the power restriction has been restored in many places since the early morning, we still need to continue to pay attention to whether the subsequent power restriction continues and how much power restriction is. The price of calcium carbide may still be strong. In terms of cost, due to the serious losses of externally purchased paste resin enterprises, and after some buyers' bottom reading and market purchase last week alleviated the inventory pressure of some paste resin enterprises, the willingness of paste resin enterprises to decline again disappeared, and this round of decline has stopped.
Supply side: according to the current start-up of paste resin enterprises, after the start-up of Junzheng in Inner Mongolia fell to 50%, the average start-up load of domestic paste resin enterprises fell to nearly 40% (including Xiyang chemical, Wudi Xinchuang, Salt Lake Haina and other long-term shutdown enterprises). The operating load of some enterprises has basically dropped to their low level. After centralized shipment last week, the inventory pressure of most paste resin enterprises has dropped sharply, the mentality has improved, and the possibility of enterprises taking the initiative to reduce the load is reduced. Considering that there are still individual paste resin enterprises with maintenance plans in the future, on the premise that the operating load of existing enterprises has not been significantly increased, the pressure on the supply side will be gradually reduced.
Demand: at present, the glove products industry continues to be weak and difficult to change, so the demand for the opponent's nesting continues to be the main demand. Although it has been heard that sporadic glove products enterprises have made bottom copy and paste resin gloves, the demand is still limited, and the change of glove products order and order price should be paid attention to later. The downstream products industry of large plate materials is mostly in off season, the overall atmosphere of East China market is still acceptable, and the market atmosphere in South China is still weak. Due to the influence of less orders, higher export freight and high temperature power limit in summer, the start of some products industry is not good. However, due to the current part of the terminal that the price is bottom, so the enthusiasm for goods preparation has improved significantly compared with the previous stage.
At present, the supply side and cost side of paste resin are obviously supported, but the demand side performance is general. Due to the poor operation of some downstream product industries, the demand side has not substantially improved, and only some buyers have the support of bottom reading and goods preparation. Therefore, in a comprehensive view, the price of paste resin has stopped falling. Although it has good support for rebound in the follow-up, the price increase of paste resin may still be limited until the demand side has not substantially improved.
