On June 25, the mainstream transaction price of wet process Carbon Black N330 in North China was 7700 (ton price, the same below), down 300 yuan or 3.8% from the peak of the month.
Affected by the fall of raw material prices, weak downstream demand and other factors, as well as the recent price reduction plan of carbon black manufacturers, it is expected that the short-term carbon black market will continue to decline.
Cost support weakens
The main raw materials of carbon black are coal tar, anthracene oil and ethylene tar, accounting for about 80% of its cost. In June, the price of these raw materials was weak, which weakened the support for the carbon black market.
In the week of June 25, anthracene oil market went down, and the price dropped by 100-150 yuan compared with last week. In terms of coal tar, the market of coal tar pitch, the main product of coal tar deep processing, is affected by environmental protection supervision, transportation control and other factors. Superimposed on the slowdown of downstream steel and aluminum demand, the long term will restrain the raw material market. Sporadic new orders have been closed to the low level, and the market lacks favorable support. The subsequent bearish expectation is still strong, and the support for coal tar market is limited.
Since June, the prices of coal tar pitch, industrial naphthalene, anthracene oil and other deep-processing products have decreased. The coal tar market has been driven down slightly by the decrease of buying enthusiasm and the reduction of auction price by production enterprises. At present, the operating rate of high-temperature coal tar industry is maintained at about 50%, and the reduction of downstream new orders has become a foregone conclusion. The coal tar market may turn into a weak and volatile state, which is difficult to bring cost support to carbon black.
Weak demand support
Carbon black is mainly used in tire, automobile rubber products and non rubber products in China. Among them, carbon black for tire accounts for 67% of the total consumption, which is the largest downstream of carbon black; Followed by non rubber products, accounting for 11% of the market share. At present, the tire market has entered the off-season demand and the trend is bearish.
The main reasons for the weak performance of the tire market in June are as follows: first, there is no bright performance in the domestic economy; Second, the price of steel is rising, and the performance of the tire terminal industry is average. At present, the operating rate of the tire industry is at 56%, which is relatively low. Last week, the operating rates of all steel tire enterprises and semi steel tire enterprises in Shandong were 64.13% and 59.93%, respectively, 2.5% and 1.69% lower than those in the same period of last year. It is difficult to increase the demand for carbon black due to the reduction of the operating rate of tire enterprises.
And the tire export market has not improved.
China is one of the main tire exporting countries in the world, and its products are mainly exported to Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. A few days ago, according to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China exported 540000 tons of rubber tires in May, 4 tons less than that in April. In June, affected by the rising shipping costs and the shortage of port containers, the operating rate of national tire factories continued to be low.
It is difficult to solve the shipping problem in a short time, or cast a shadow on China's tire export market in the second half of the year. Generally speaking, affected by the high temperature and rainy weather in July, the downstream market is in the off-season. And in the situation of chip shortage and epidemic spread, the overseas market is still not optimistic, and the support for carbon black market is insufficient.
Supply tends to ease
Domestic carbon black overcapacity, market supply pressure. In the case of insufficient demand, it highlights the loose supply.
In June, most of the carbon black industry maintained normal operation, with an overall operation rate of around 65% and sufficient supply, except for the maintenance of individual enterprises and the shutdown due to environmental protection. From the downstream point of view, the current domestic tire inventory is relatively large, with an overall inventory of 45-60 days, while the normal inventory is generally within 30 days. Under the high inventory pressure, the demand of carbon black for tires decreased significantly. Therefore, the current carbon black enterprise shipping pressure is also large, inventory has accumulated. Under the influence of various negative factors, it is expected that the carbon black price will have room for correction in the future.
In addition, China's export volume and price of carbon black declined at the same time. According to customs statistics, in May, China's export volume of carbon black was 67600 tons, a month on month decrease of 15.29%; The average export price was US $1240.9, down by US $21.3 from last month, making it difficult to boost the domestic carbon black market.
