1、 Main logic
1. A big price rise in the middle and outer part of the festival
During the Spring Festival holiday, affected by extreme weather, the prices of crude oil and polyolefin in the outer market rose sharply. Severe cold on the coast of Texas and Louisiana in the United States led to the closure of factories (Lyondell Basel, ExxonMobil Baytown, etc.), further aggravating the already tight supply situation in North America. In addition, during the Spring Festival, a 7.3-magnitude earthquake occurred off the coast of Fukushima, Japan. ENEOS closed its 145000 B / d refinery in Sendai, and Mitsui shut down its Chiba cracking unit (612000 tons of ethylene and 330000 tons of propylene). The shutdown of the external unit due to force majeure further exacerbated the global polyolefin supply tension, and the external price continued to rise.
2. The fundamentals are good
In addition to the impact of the external market, the domestic polyolefin itself also has a certain rising base. On the one hand, the new production capacity is difficult to implement in the short term, and the supply increment is limited; on the other hand, with the continuous recovery of domestic economy, the downstream demand of plastic products remains strong.
3. Spring Festival is less than expected
After the festival, the petrochemical stock is 940000 tons, and the accumulated stock is 345000 tons during the Spring Festival. Compared with the previous Spring Festival, the accumulated stock range is low, and the absolute level of stock is also in a low position.
4. Concerns: massive replenishment before and after the festival or impact on replenishment after the festival
Before the festival, due to the worry about the slow recovery of logistics after the festival, some downstream companies made replenishment to a certain extent, and the inventory of raw materials in the downstream was on the high side. In addition, the inventory of traders before the festival also accumulated to varying degrees. Previously, we have seen the signs of the inventory flow in the industrial chain from up to down, and the over replenishment behavior of the downstream raw material inventory or the overdraft of the downstream replenishment strength after the festival to a certain extent.
