Introduction
In the first half of the year, the domestic PVC paste market fell steadily, especially in the second quarter, while the price hit the bottom and rebounded in the third quarter, mainly from the support of the raw material side and the supply side. The main factors affecting the fourth quarter are both empty and good, the cost support may still be obvious, and there is little downward space for market prices.
Multiple positive support for the bottom rebound in paste Resin prices in the third quarter
In the third quarter, the price trend of domestic PVC Paste Resin showed a trend of first falling and then rising. Supported by the high price of raw calcium carbide, the price of paste resin rebounded to a relatively rational price. Taking the price on September 22 as an example, the average market price of large-scale materials in East China on that day was 11500 yuan / ton, 1800 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of June; On September 22, the average market price of glove material in North China was 11250 yuan / ton, 1000 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of June.
The price trend bottomed out and rebounded in the third quarter due to the influence of many factors:
The operating load of the double pressurization industry at the raw material and supply side fell to a low point in the year
Before the middle and early days of July, the price of domestic PVC paste continued to decline inertia in the second quarter. Due to the continuous decline of prices in the second quarter, buyers in the market mainly wait-and-see and just need to purchase. At the same time, the inventory of some paste resin enterprises is high. At the same time, the price of raw calcium carbide continues to rise, and some enterprises suffer serious losses. Under the dual pressure of cost and inventory, the load is reduced to alleviate their own pressure. Some enterprises even temporarily shut down or overhaul in advance due to the shortage of raw calcium carbide supply, As a result, the average operating load of the domestic PVC paste industry in July was only 45.53%, down 25.65 percentage points from that in June, falling to the lowest level in the year.
The number of plant maintenance enterprises in August was significantly less than that in July. However, due to the tight supply of raw calcium carbide, the operating load of some paste resin remained at a low level. The tight supply of raw calcium carbide still existed in September, and the purchasing pressure of some paste resin enterprises that purchased calcium carbide was high. It can not be ruled out that some enterprises still expected to reduce the load at the end of September. With the tight supply of raw calcium carbide and the support of high prices, the price of domestic PVC paste rose one after another from August to September.
The overall demand performance is weak, but there is still support for phased replenishment
In 2020, the domestic demand for PVC gloves surged, driving the price of PVC paste resin to a record high. Driven by high profits and high demand, the production capacity of the domestic PVC glove industry expanded rapidly. However, the situation of overcapacity of PC gloves has appeared in early 2021, and the domestic PVC glove industry has been weak since the second quarter due to the obvious decline in export orders, Some small and medium-sized glove products enterprises were shut down, and the start-up of large glove products enterprises was also weak. Glove products enterprises mainly digested their own glove material inventory. There was little demand for glove material in the second quarter, which brought obvious glove material demand pressure to paste resin enterprises. The glove material inventory of some paste resin enterprises increased sharply, and turned to large-scale materials to relieve the pressure. In the middle and late July, due to the impact of the high cost of raw calcium carbide, some paste resin enterprises suffered serious losses. Some large glove products enterprises believed that the price of glove materials was basically at the bottom, and their own glove material inventory was basically digested. Some large glove products enterprises had the demand for bottom reading and stock, which alleviated the pressure on glove inventory of paste resin enterprises. In September, it was also heard that some large glove products enterprises were also receiving glove export orders, but the order price was still low.
Some terminals are not prosperous in the peak season, and it is difficult to drive the demand for large-scale materials
At the end of the third quarter of previous years, the peak demand season for paste resin was opened, but this year, the demand side performance is not ideal. Some terminal products such as toys, leather and other products industries mostly said that the export order price is low, the export freight is high, and the transportation time is difficult to guarantee. Therefore, the export order demand of some terminal products has decreased significantly, and the operating load of terminal products enterprises in some regions is low, This leads to the sluggish demand for large market materials in the peak season.
In the third quarter, the paste resin price hit the bottom and rebounded. Although the fundamentals were weak, the cost supporting factors remained. In the fourth quarter, the market price may continue to maintain a high consolidation. The specific analysis is as follows:
Raw calcium carbide: in combination with the supply of calcium carbide in the third quarter, the tight supply of calcium carbide in the fourth quarter may still be difficult to ease, the price of calcium carbide may continue to maintain a high level, and the cost support may continue to be strong.
Supply side: due to the completion of centralized maintenance of domestic PVC paste resin enterprises from July to August, there are few planned maintenance enterprises in the fourth quarter. However, some PVC paste enterprises that need to purchase calcium carbide still have uncertain factors in the stability of raw material calcium carbide supply. It is not ruled out that some enterprises have reduced load production in individual periods in the fourth quarter or due to the shortage of raw material calcium carbide supply. In the fourth quarter, we still need to pay attention to the operation of Shandong Langhui's new capacity of 80000 T / A.
Demand side: at present, the start-up performance of some end products industries with large inventory is poor, especially in some areas of East China and South China. It is expected that the start-up or continue to maintain a weak level in the downstream of large inventory in the fourth quarter due to individual factors; In the follow-up, we still need to pay attention to whether the demand of glove products industry can improve in the fourth quarter.
On the whole, there are still many uncertain factors in the fourth quarter. The supply side and demand side may still maintain a weak level, but the cost side remains high and is expected to remain, which supports the paste resin Market in the fourth quarter. Therefore, it is expected that there is little downward space for the PVC paste price in the fourth quarter.
