In 2021, the domestic chemical market showed a good trend, especially since the third quarter, the prices of most chemical products soared. According to the data of South China chemical product price index of Guanghua trading, since July this year, the index price has exceeded 1200 points, a new high in recent two years. Up to now, it is at 1233 points, up 365 points or 42% from 868 points at the beginning of the year.
This year, the chemical products market continued to develop well, mainly due to the intervention of the state and local governments. On the one hand, due to the sharp rise in commodity prices, especially coal prices, 5500 kcal of coal in QinGang was 500 yuan / ton in January, reaching 1009 yuan / ton at the highest point in September, an increase of 100%. As we all know, 70% of China's total energy consumption is coal. China's economic growth is mainly driven by coal. Therefore, this year also ushered in a rare power restriction policy. On the other hand, because the United States prints a lot of money and plans to export inflation to the world through money printing, the money printed with paper can be exchanged for the wishful thinking of goods produced by foreign real gold and silver. Therefore, the state has issued some policies and measures to intervene.
Following the development trend of this year's chemical market, Caustic Soda is also unwilling to lag behind. The market in 2021 is obviously better than that in 2020. Especially since the third quarter, the market has gradually shown a good trend, and the prices of liquid alkali and flake alkali have jumped since September. Taking Shandong as an example, the increase of 32% ionic membrane alkali was as high as 70%, and that of 50% ionic membrane alkali was as high as 50%; Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, the ex factory price of flake alkali increased by nearly 80% in the month. At present, the favorable caustic soda market is still the dominant factor, and there is still operability. People in the industry are also concerned about the market trend in the later stage. Now it is mainly analyzed from the following aspects.
Main factors affecting the later trend of domestic caustic soda Market
1. Supply side. Recently, due to the double control of energy consumption and the impact of limited film, some units have stopped or reduced the negative production. In the current period, the unit operation of chlor alkali enterprises is less than 80%, the supply of goods in the market is reduced, and the inventory of some enterprises is low. Especially in Jiangsu, the supply is tight, and most enterprises are closed and reluctant to sell. In terms of flake alkali, the centralized maintenance of manufacturers has been completed, and the production tends to be stable. However, the dual control policy in Northwest China continues, and the commencement of local manufacturers is still limited. For the time being, the overall commencement level is difficult to return to the normal production level.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the domestic caustic soda output in August 2021 was 318.7 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.8%. According to the chlor alkali commencement in September, the output is expected to be about 3 million tons.
2. Demand side. The demand for caustic soda in alumina industry has increased significantly. On the one hand, due to the reduction of imported ore and the increase of domestic ore consumption, the demand for caustic soda has also increased accordingly; On the other hand, although affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption, due to the current rising price, the overall unit operation in the alumina industry has not decreased significantly; Thirdly, alumina enterprises are in good profitability at present, and there is little possibility to lower the purchase price of caustic soda. In addition, the current supply of caustic soda is tight, and the purchase price of liquid alkali for alumina may rise again in October.
As of September 24, the mainstream price in Shandong was 3630-3670 yuan / ton, the mainstream price in Shanxi was 3640-3700 yuan / ton, the mainstream price in Henan was 3640-3700 yuan / ton, the mainstream price in Guangxi was 3390-3450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price in Guizhou was 3390-3430 yuan / ton, an increase of 700-850 yuan / ton compared with the end of August.
3. Other aspects. With the approaching of the Eleventh National Day, the transportation of dangerous goods will be limited. It is expected that some terminals will prepare goods in advance. At the same time, the dual control of energy consumption will continue. Power is limited in most parts of China. Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other major chemical industry provinces have made heavy attacks, and thousands of enterprises have taken measures to cut power and stop production. At the same time, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Guangdong are also the concentration of printing and dyeing industry clusters, The shutdown of large-scale printing and dyeing enterprises will also mean a reduction in the demand for caustic soda.
On the whole, at present, chlor alkali enterprises have more maintenance and tight supply. Affected by the dual control policy in Northwest China, it is difficult for manufacturers to return to the normal level. In addition, most flake alkali manufacturers have long-term order support, and the inventory has been in a tight state. At the same time, due to the tight supply of liquid alkali, alumina enterprises in Shanxi have begun to extract liquid alkali, which also supports the procurement of flake alkali by alumina enterprises to a certain extent. In addition, due to the recent sharp rise in alumina price, which has brought profit growth to the enterprise, the operation of alumina has also maintained a normal level, and the demand for caustic soda has increased. Looking at the current caustic soda market, although the dual control policy is double-sided to the market, it is obviously biased towards the supply side, the market is still the dominant factor, and the speculation enthusiasm of people in the industry is high. In view of this, it is expected that the domestic caustic soda market will still show an upward trend in the short term! In the later stage, we should pay more attention to the unit operation and alumina demand of chlor alkali enterprises in Northwest China, especially pay close attention to the market changes in the middle and late October.
Brief analysis of recent domestic caustic soda Market
1、 Liquid alkali Market
This week, the domestic liquid alkali market rose sharply, and the prices in most regions rose to varying degrees. Due to the maintenance or load reduction of some units in Shandong, the supply is reduced, coupled with the increase of outsourcing orders and the increase of liquid alkali purchase price of local alumina again, the local price rises sharply; Affected by the dual control policy, there are many maintenance enterprises in Jiangsu, the supply of goods is tight, and most enterprises are closed without reporting; Supported by the price rise in Shandong, the price of liquid alkali in Hebei increased accordingly; The supply in Henan decreased and the demand was acceptable. The price rose twice in the week, with a range of 600 yuan / ton (100%); The local chlor alkali enterprises in Inner Mongolia did not start their units very well, and the supply was tight. In addition, the flake alkali market continued to improve, and the local liquid alkali price increased by 600 yuan / ton; The unit operation of chlor alkali enterprises in Tianjin is not high, and the price increases by 400 yuan / ton (100%) supported by export; Affected by environmental protection, some units in Sichuan are shut down for maintenance, the supply is reduced, the downstream demand is OK, and the inventory is tight. The price rises twice a week, with a range of 900-1100 yuan / ton (100%); The supply and demand in South China is relatively balanced. Supported by the price rise in the north, the local liquid alkali price has risen sharply; Other regions remained basically stable.
On the whole, at present, less than 80% of the units in chlor alkali enterprises are started. Supported by the increase in maintenance, export, demand for alumina and the increase in the price of liquid alkali purchased by alumina, especially the current small inventory of caustic soda in alumina enterprises, the actual demand for caustic soda increases and the operation enthusiasm of people in the industry improves.
At present, some chlor alkali enterprises are overhauled, and the supply of goods is tight. In addition, Shandong alumina has a large purchase price of liquid alkali, the market supply and demand are well supported, and the insiders operate actively. In view of this, it is expected that the domestic liquid alkali market will continue to rise in the short term.
2、 Flake alkali Market
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This week, the domestic flake alkali market rose sharply, and the prices of main producing areas and main sales Land jumped. The prices of main manufacturers in Inner Mongolia rose by 1500 yuan / ton, reaching the 5000 yuan / ton mark, and the prices of main sales land rose. At present, the price of 99% of flake alkali manufacturers in Inner Mongolia is 4500-5000 yuan / ton, which is higher than the actual local transaction price.
At present, manufacturers have sufficient orders, mostly long-term orders, the market supply is tight, and even some primary agents are difficult to get the source of goods. The supply of Northwest manufacturers is tight, the main manufacturers in Shandong are closed, and the flake alkali market is still in a situation of shortage of goods. Due to the shortage of liquid alkali supply, the downstream alumina also increases the demand for flake alkali to a certain extent. At the same time, due to the high price of alumina, it is less likely to lower the purchase price of flake alkali. On the whole, at present, the supply of goods is tight, some manufacturers are closed, traders are reluctant to sell, and the market price is relatively chaotic. It is difficult to follow the mainstream. Most traders make independent quotations, and the speculation enthusiasm of people in the industry continues to rise.
At present, the flake alkali market has good support in terms of cost, supply and demand. Especially under the continuous tension of supply in the current market, it is expected that the domestic flake alkali market will still show an upward trend in the short term! In the later stage, we should also pay close attention to the changes of the market!
