Throughout may, the domestic MELAMINE market was basically in the downward channel, and it continued to rise slightly until the end of the month. In early May, the highest ex factory price referred to 15500 yuan / ton, and the lowest in the middle of the month dropped to 8300 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 46%. At present, the highest ex factory price rose to 12000 yuan / ton, with a 44% increase compared with the lowest in May. Affected by the rising price of raw material urea, the market decline slowed down at the end of May with the support of cost, and gradually stabilized. Because most of the middlemen and end-users did not have the source of goods in the whole price reduction process, the circulation of goods was accelerated as the market stabilized. Subsequently, the centralized shutdown of the plant occurred, and the daily average operating load rate dropped from 80% to about 65%. The supply of goods was significantly tightened, and the enterprise had no pressure on shipment and inventory. Therefore, as the supply of goods became tight again, the manufacturer had no intention to reduce the price.
Specifically, on the one hand, the price of raw material urea rose rapidly, which strongly supported the cost of melamine. This year, the domestic urea price soared. At present, the national average ex factory price is 2640 yuan / ton, up 41.18% from 1870 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year; According to the theoretical value, the production cost of melamine increased from 5610 yuan / ton to 7920 yuan / ton. Therefore, when the price fell below 9000 yuan / ton in the early stage, the profit margin of the enterprise was seriously compressed, so the willingness to continue to reduce the price was significantly weakened, and the market stabilized in a short time at the end of May.
On the other hand, the important factor supporting the current round of price increase is the support of rigid demand. At the end of May, as the price stopped falling and stabilized, most of the downstream did not purchase during the price reduction process, so there was more demand for inventory replenishment. Moreover, the downstream still held orders for production. Therefore, under relatively appropriate prices, the load was gradually increased or production resumed, and the downstream operating load rate increased to about 56%, With the price rising again, the manufacturers control the quantity of orders, so there is still just need to purchase, which will push the price up gradually.
With the superposition of multiple positive information, enterprises have strong intention to raise prices again. After entering June, prices rise rapidly again. In the case of tight supply of goods, manufacturers mostly adopt the operation mode of controlling orders and increasing volume. Some downstream companies worry that prices will continue to rise, stimulating the enthusiasm of taking goods. In addition, there is demand for goods in the downstream before the end of the afternoon Festival, and the overall market trading is relatively active.
At present, the above-mentioned enterprises are in the state of parking. In addition, Hebei Xinji Jiuyuan has a parking plan. Shanxi Fengxi Linyi phase II is about to resume. Xinjiang Yuxiang and Xinjiang Jinxiang Sairui have slightly reduced the load. At present, the average operating load rate of the enterprises is 70%, and the daily output is about 4000 tons. In summer, the enterprise's equipment fluctuates frequently, and the recent operating load rate continues to fluctuate around 70%. This has also become one of the factors for enterprises to support prices, basically achieving the balance of production and sales, and there is no pressure on delivery and inventory as a whole. Some manufacturers are even in a tight state of goods.
With the rising prices, the lower reaches of the resistance to high prices increased, and facing the upcoming consumption off-season, the overall purchasing enthusiasm of the lower reaches is weak in the near future. At present, the factory price refers to 10100-12000 yuan / ton (except Xinjiang), and the price difference between high and low is large. In the short term, the domestic melamine market is still in a high situation, and the low end may make up for the price, while the high-end adjustment is relatively limited, so the game between supply and demand is more cautious. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the impact of upstream and downstream construction and news on the market.
